Stock market indices

THE MACRO ZONE

01 October 2025

READING TIME: 5 MINUTE

The capital market in Romania is going through a remarkable period, and the BET index, the main barometer of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, reached a new historic high this summer. The index's performance reflects not only the market dynamics but also the strength of the companies that compose it.

The MacRO Zone comes today with a retrospective on the stock indices, their performance and, of course, with a short analysis in which we will see the impact that Banca Transilvania has on the structure of the BET index.

STOCK MARKET INDICATORS AND PERFORMANCE?

A stock index is an indicator that reflects value evolution of a listed group of shares on a financial market. Let's take BET (Bucharest Exchange Trading Index) as an example. It includes 20 companies listed on the main market of the Bucharest Stock Exchange.

Its role is to provide investors with an overview of the general trend of the market or a particular economic sector. Stock indices are used as tools for evaluating the performance of markets or investment funds.

VALUE

The index value is calculated based on the stock prices of the included companies, usually weighted by their market capitalization. For example, if a company has a higher market value, its influence on the index will be greater.

RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE BET INDEX

In August 2025, the BET index, the main index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, exceeded for the first time the threshold of 20,000 points, signaling increased confidence from investors and a consolidation of the local market. The evolution in recent years places it above the returns of the S&P500 and NASDAQ100, making it attractive to investors.

STRUCTURE OF THE BET INDEX

To have a stock index representative for the market, which functions as a benchmark, companies are selected based on criteria such as: capitalization scholarship holder, liquidity, the domain of activity, transparency and quality corporate governance.
The largest share in BET is held by:
- Transilvania Bank (TLV ~ 19.6%)
- OMV Petrom (SNP ~ 18.6%)
- Hidroelectrica (H2O ~ 14.5%)

TLV DRIVES BET

With a weight of almost 20% in the structure of the BET index , the shares of Transilvania Bank (TLV) have a considerable impact on the index performance, being correlated.

A concrete example I saw in the month of July when TLV had an increase of +4.1% in a single day, generating over half of the market circulation . This impulse brought the BET index close to its historical maximum, confirming that TLV is the confidence sample in the local market.

Banca Transilvania shares offer an attractive mix of competitive financial indicators, generate over 30% of the liquidity on shares from BVB, a market capitalization of over 30 billion lei, and a strong total yield (dividends, free shares).

EVOLUTION BET AND TLV

Evolution 2015 - 2025

2015-2017: This period marks a period of economic expansion. The banking system stabilizes, and BT has an expansion policy (acquisition of Volksbank, 2015).
- Effect: TLV distances itself from BET
2017-2019: Period of accelerated economic growth. BT takes advantage of low market interest rates and increased demand for credit. BT becomes the market leader.
- Effect: TLV has net yields superior to BET.
2020: COVID crisis affects the banking system more strongly due to the risk of credit non-performance and solidarity measures.
- Effect: The decrease of BET is diminished, due to the diversity of the companies.
2020-2022: TLV has a strong comeback focused on continuing the strategy of consolidation, liquidity, and increased profitability.
- Effect: Sustained growth followed by amplified correction amid uncertainties (inflation, NBR interest rates).
2023-2025: TLV enters an accelerated upward trend and strongly distances itself from BET.
- Effect: TLV performs above average, transforming the company into a blue-chip for investors.

ADVANTAGES OF INVESTING IN INDICES
Automatic diversification – By buying an index (or an ETF that replicates it) you invest in a mix of companies (BT, Petrom, Antibiotics Iași), which reduces your risk. Transparency – The methodology for selecting companies and calculating the index are public. You know exactly what you are investing in.		Stable long-term performance – Historically, many important indices (S&P 500, BET-TR) have offered solid long-term returns, even though they experienced short-term declines. Easy to access – You now have a lot of options, but you surely already know the first two: BT Pay & BT Trade & BTAM.

THE DISADVANTAGES OF INVESTMENTS IN INDICES

Inflexibility – When you choose to invest in an index, you automatically choose to invest in all the companies it contains. Unfortunately, you cannot select only the ones you want.

Inequality – Indices, such as BET, which are weighted by capitalization, give more "weight" to large companies. Practically, a company with a large capitalization, like BT, will influence the movement of the index.

IDEAL FOR		NOT EXACTLY SUITABLE FOR
beginners who want diversification without effort long-term investors those who want low costs and simplicity		investors looking for quick gains people who want full control those who invest in the short term or speculatively.

ALL IN ONE

BET at historical highs, TLV in an upward dynamic, investors more active in the market, all these are clear signals of a stock market that is becoming increasingly mature.

And for those who want to hit the road on this path, it is good to keep in mind that passive investments in indices can be a stable start in creating a portfolio, as long as financial decisions are based on discipline.