Real estate market evolution

THE MACRO ZONE

22 April 2026

READING TIME: 8 MINUTE

When it comes to the real estate market, the situation is quite simple, everything is overpriced. And if you have thought about buying an apartment in recent years, you have probably seen with your own eyes the increase in prices. At the end of 2025, developments of +6% were recorded (Servus, Cluj!), which brought the average square meter in Cluj-Napoca to about 3,230 euros/m² and up to +22% (Hello, Bucharest!), that is one square meter of approximately 2,200 euros in the capital.

Nevertheless, I have learned that, when we talk about the economy, the truth becomes nuanced, depending on the types of figures we look at. For example, housing prices can be nominal (lei /euro), those displayed in the sales ads, but also taking into account the inflation and thus to see real increases. Welcome to a new The MacRO Zone where we will analyze numerically the difference between rent and purchase, respectively how we stand in relation to other European countries.

A DECADE IN WHICH THE PACE HAS ACCELERATED

To begin with, we propose a look at the European perspective, where, in the period 2015 – 2025, we have repeatedly heard that a trend is forming in which neighbors from the West prefer to rent rather than buy a home. Even though the trend comes on a social basis different from that of Romanians (after the communist period, the sense of ownership in our country developed so strongly that we became the country with the most owners in the EU - 94,3%), the choice of renting as a mode of living was not a trend based on social factors, but also on economic ones.

2015 – 2025

Housing prices in the EU increased by 64,9%.
Rents, in the same period, recorded an increase of 21,8%.
The result is that selling prices have increased almost to x3 times faster than the rents.

Structural trend shows us that ownership has become increasingly difficult to achieve, not because demand has disappeared, but because real estate assets have appreciated at a faster pace. In simple terms, accessibility to ownership has decreased, and neighbors in the West have turned to alternatives.

QUARTERLY HOUSE PRICE GROWTH RATE AT THE EU LEVEL
%

As we can see, the growth rate of housing prices at the EU level has shown us a 2025 of consolidation, not of further explosion. The rates remained high, but towards the end a slight tempering was seen in the quarterly comparison.
- In Q4 2025, the largest annual increases the housing price increases in the EU were recorded in Hungary (21.2%), Portugal (18.9%) and Croatia (16.1%).
- At the opposite pole, the only annual decrease was in Finland (-3.1%), and the weakest positive results were in Luxembourg (0.1%) and France (1.0%).

These differences show a very heterogeneous European market: some countries were still in a phase of rapid appreciation, while others remained almost stagnant or even in correction. Thus, when it comes to the European real estate map, we cannot say that we are looking at a single market, but at dozens of local markets with their own logic, directly influenced by national social, political, and economic factors.

QUARTERLY RATE OF INCREASE IN HOUSING PRICES AT THE LEVEL OF ROMANIA
%

Romania had an upward trajectory in all four quarters, so it did not enter any contraction phase in 2025.
In the second half of the year, Romania's annual rate, of 6.6% and 6.7%, exceeded the EU average, of 5.4% and 5.5%, which shows a relative acceleration of the Romanian market.
Compared to European leaders, we remain in a zone of strong growth, but not exuberant, which places us in an intermediate category: more dynamic than the large and mature markets of Western Europe, but less tense than the markets with the fastest price increases in Central and Southeastern Europe.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER INFLATION DECREASES?

Here the nuances appear, because not everything that grows nominally also grows in reality, and the market in Romania in 2025 illustrates this rule best. Although Romania grew by 6.7% vs Q4’24, when we subtract inflation from the equation, the outlook changes and even becomes negative.

REAL INCREASE IN HOUSING PRICES
% | AN/AN

With 5 consecutive years (2021-2025) of real decline, inflation has systematically eroded a good part of the nominal growth.

DEFLATED HOUSING PRICE

Imagine that in 2022 you bought an apartment for €100,000. In 2025, you see it listed at €110,000 and you have the impression that you gained 10%. But in the same period, prices in the economy (food, utilities, services) have risen by 15%. On paper, you seem richer, but in reality you can afford fewer goods than before.

Exactly that measures the increase in housing prices deflated: not how big the number on the label is, but what the real increase is. It is the same logic by which you find that a salary has increased by 5% in a year with 10% inflation, which actually means a decrease in the standard of living.

Romania has a real estate market with high nominal dynamics, but inflation has eroded a good part of that growth. Whoever bought a home as an investment in 2022 or 2023 earned less in real terms than the displayed prices suggest.
While, in Europe, deflated price increases in 2025 were in Portugal (+14.7%), Hungary (+11.7%) and Croatia (+10.0%), Romania (+1.7%) is among the last five countries in the EU, along with Finland (-3.6%) and Sweden (-1.6%%).

AND YET... IF ROMANIANS' PURCHASING POWER HAS DECREASED, WHY DON'T PRICES FALL?

Besides the fact that the real purchasing power has been eroded by inflation and that the number of transactions has decreased, nominal prices have not given in. And if you are wondering what the reason would be, the answer lies in offer.

In 2025, in Bucharest and Ilfov, 17,300 dwellings were completed, the second smallest result in the last six years, an increase of only 1.8% compared to 2024. The new supply is small. And when supply remains small and demand persists, nominal prices do not give in.

While the uncertainty of the national and international context has created a combination of structural factors (increasing taxation, persistent inflation, and rising energy and raw material costs) that push up both material and labor costs, new residential construction will most likely remain low, and the supply relatively small.

ARE RENTS STILL AN OPTION?

Rents remain, theoretically, an alternative, but the numbers show that this option is also becoming increasingly expensive. Between 2015 and 2025, in Romania, rents have increased by approximately 60%, and housing prices by about 70%, both above the EU average, where prices have advanced by 64.9%, and rents by only 21.8%. In other words, Romania has not only become more expensive, but has become more expensive at an accelerated pace including in the "monthly rent payment", not just in purchase.

Viewed more broadly, at the EU level, this gap between house prices and relatively moderate rents has eroded significantly access to the property, especially for young people and households without assets. The sharp correction in 2023, followed by the rapid recovery in 2024–2025, shows a market extremely sensitive to the cost of credit, structurally supported by the lack of supply, similar to a market where demand always returns faster than the ability to build.

ACCESSIBILITY, THE REAL STAKE OF THE HOUSING MARKET

Romania has a robust nominal real estate market, and that is not to be ignored. However, the five consecutive years of negative real prices indicate that inflation has quietly stolen part of the growth. The real problem is not whether the market is growing or not, but that affordability is deteriorating: homes are becoming harder to buy relative to incomes, new supply remains insufficient, and construction costs will not decrease soon.

The long-term solution comes from more supply, faster authorizations, and more accessible credit options for the population. Without these, the discrepancy between those who already own an apartment and those trying to buy one will continue to grow.